Yesterday we held a great Farming Futures event in Dorset. Over 40 people came to Owen Yeatman's farm, near Blandford to hear about his venture into anaerobic digestion. (If you've ever wondered what the inside of an anaerobic digestor looks like, you can see it on the BBC Spotlight piece that went out yesterday evening.

The Lowbrook Farm digestor converts the slurry from the 400 head dairy herd and maize into biogas, producing electricity for over 400 houses. The digestion process also results in the nitrogen in the slurry being turned into a form which can be used more easily by growing crops, so the digestate is a more valuable fertiliser than the original slurry. A case study is available from the Farming Futures website.

Jonathan Scurlock, the NFU's Chief Policy Adviser on renewable energy and climate change, was one of the speakers at the event and discussed the role of anaerobic digestion in a low carbon future. He highlighted the different scales of digestor that need to be taken into account in policy making - to encourage a mixture: from small farm-scale digesters, perhaps providing biogas just to farm buildings and housing, right through to large scale commercial plants operated by waste management companie. We should be aware of the whole range of opportunities, and for example farms may be able to use the technology collaboratively where one farm may be better sited to take in waste from other farms and manage a grid connection.

Yesterday's event was organised with the NFU, one of the partners in the Farming Futres project. The project's approach of convening a number of partners - Forum for the Future, the NFU, CLA, AIC, and the AHRF (representing all of the levy boards) - with funding from Defra - is proving an effective way to produce clear and practical information for farmers and land managers on the wide-ranging issues related to climate change.

Preparing for uncertain challenges

Last year 40 per cent of Fortune 1000 companies said the impact of a water shortage on their business would be “severe” or “catastrophic”- but only 17 per cent said they were prepared for such a crisis (Marsh Centre for Risk Insights)[i].

It appears many businesses – operating in areas with plentiful amounts of relatively cheap water – do not see water as much of an issue yet. But we all know that water is an environmental, a political, an economic and a social issue, and that makes it a business issue too. With rising populations and climate change, it’s an issue that will go up and up the business agenda in the coming months and years. Even areas that may be water rich today could prove to be challenging in the future.

As with many uncertain challenges, the better you understand the issues and prepare for multiple futures, the less disruption you are likely to experience as operating realities change. Only when a business understands its whole water footprint – direct and indirect impacts – will it know where the risk areas are and where the opportunities for process and product innovation are.

At our recent Forum Business Network event (‘Water Falling’), delegates voiced concerns about competition for water and the priority their businesses would be given by authorities if the communities in which they operate were to face a severe lack of clean fresh water. What is clear is that getting access to the right amount of the right type of water will become more difficult. An increase in water prices in many parts of the world is likely, but there may also be instances where water will be simply unavailable for industrial use. Thus security of supply of water will become one of the key drivers for business.

Getting to grips with water footprinting

Water footprinting - a term introduced by Hoekstra over five years ago[ii] - can be done at a variety of levels: individual, product, company or even country level. The most widely accepted definition of a water footprint for a business is “the total volume of freshwater that is used directly and indirectly to run and support a business”[iii].

Understanding where your business’s big water stresses are now – right along the value chain – is important. Preparing for how those water stresses might change in the future is doubly critical.

The value of water footprinting for business

The real value in water footprinting is that it helps a business analyse its water impacts and highlight the hotspots (or its water stressed spots) in its value chain. Companies can then focus their efforts on those areas of greatest impact and where they have greatest influence.

Based on Forum’s experiences with corporate carbon footprinting, the value of water footprinting is likely to be much more in the business response than in the consumer response. This is likely to be focussed on eco efficiency, but also increasingly around product innovation.

An evolving tool

It’s clear that water footprinting can be very helpful as a company starts getting to grips with its water consumption and associated risks. However, it is a relatively young concept and there are still some sticky issues with using it more widely. For companies to be able to benchmark their performance for example, boundaries need to be clearly defined and agreed. Definitions need to be universal, methodologies for measuring need to be standardised – pretty similar issues as with carbon footprinting, carbon labelling and carbon neutrality.

There are, however, some fundamental differences between water and carbon footprinting. Unlike carbon, water is geographically bound, and analysis and solutions must be applied on a watershed level.

The UK might be classified as a region with low or no water stress when analysed on a national level, but look closer and the Thames Valley region stands out as severely water stressed, and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Water footprinting is not just about the amount of water – it also takes into account the type of water and, crucially, where it comes from.

Businesses need to be aware of their current footprint, but it is also vital that they think ahead. Companies also need to develop an understanding of how their water needs, and the watersheds in which they operate, might change over time.

Water footprinting isn’t for everyone

For some businesses the cost of detailed water footprinting will be a barrier, but many won’t need a detailed methodology to tell them the water stressed parts of their business. A simple risk mapping exercise, such as the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)’s Global Water tool[iv], might be a more viable alternative for some.

It’s not a panacea, but it can be a useful first step

Water footprinting is only the first step in a corporate water strategy. As with carbon, companies should start by measuring their direct (operational) footprint. They should then map out their supply chain water footprint. Once they understand their dryspots – and/or wetspots for that matter – businesses can then prioritise action. They can introduce water reduction plans at their facilities and also look at their raw materials that come from water-stressed areas.

Businesses need to think about how they can work with their key suppliers and the communities in which they operate to minimise their total water footprint. At our ‘Water Falling’ event in September, participants agreed that collaboration is key to finding the appropriate solutions. This suggests that there is a readiness and willingness to come together to find a way forward in tackling the water challenge.

Where to go for more information?

If you want to know more about how Forum for the Future can help you with future water scenarios, risk mapping or developing corporate water strategies, please contact Lena Staafgard or Dan Crossley.

Other resources

• WBCSD website for access to a free water assessment tool for global understanding of consumption for individual sites[iv]
• Waterwise (www.waterwise.org.uk)
• Water Footprint Network (www.waterfootprint.org)
• Forum for the Future’s ‘Water Falling’ event summary in the Partner Area of this website (available to members of the Forum Business Network)

Dan Crossley and Lena Staafgard

[i] http://global.marsh.com/news/press/PRMCRI092107.php
[ii] http://www.waterfootprint.org/Reports/Report12.pdf
[iii] http://www.waterfootprint.org/index.php?page=files/BusinessWaterFootprints
[iv] http://www.wbcsd.org/templates/TemplateWBCSD5/layout.asp?type=p&MenuId=MTUxNQ&doOpen=1&ClickMenu=LeftMenu

Could climate change feel 'solved' by 2030? A tempting idea - though in current climes it might seem firmly on the loopy side of optimistic.

But have a look at 'Efficiency First', one of our 'Climate Futures' scenarios. Strong market incentives and rapid hi-tech innovation lead to a breakthrough in low carbon technology, though it comes at a price: inequality and collapsing ecosystems.

There are five scenarios in 'Climate Futures', all exploring very different responses we could see to climate change by 2030. They’re based on interviews with a wide range of thinkers from across the world and a series of workshops that we conducted with Hewlett Packard Labs.

The work differs from a lot of climate change research as it looks at the human responses – political, economic, social and psychological – rather than the environmental impacts. This is an important difference. It's not enough just to plan for the direct impacts of climate change. Climate change will affect everything, so we need to take a more systemic view.

Of the many ideas surfacing in Climate Futures, perhaps the most important is that the scope for action on climate change narrows dramatically as time goes on. We still have the freedom to choose what sort of future we want, but this is not a luxury we will have forever. Delay, and we could face draconian state interventions down the line, or even a ‘Protectionist World’ scenario in which globalisation begins to break down in violence.

HP Labs will be using the scenarios for planning and strategy and so will we. They’re also available for anyone to download and use, and the report includes some suggestions for how to do this. We hope you’ll take a look.

Read more about Climate Futures and download the report here

Read the Green Futures feature 'New Year's Day 2030' here