Forum for the Future worked with cider makers to help them understand how to prepare for climate change and create a thriving, sustainable industry. 

The National Association of Cider Makers (NACM) – which represents major brands like Bulmers and Magners through to 100s of small local outfits – now actively encourages its members to use the resulting report Cider Futures as a strategic development tool and as a ‘filter’ to assess major new initiatives within those companies.  

The report includes a vision – co-created by Forum and the NACM - which reflects the requirements and aspirations of the cider industry as a whole for 2022.  Key elements include:

• Climate change: learning from Spanish orchards about drought and heat-tolerant varieties of apple
• Carbon emissions: identifying the hot spots and aiming to reduce CO2 by 30% by 2022
• Pesticides: aiming to be ’better than compliant’
• Waste: moving towards zero waste by reusing by-products, for example by turning spent yeast into cosmetics or apple pulp into biofuel
• Biodiversity: working with food and drink companies and academics to define a ‘sustainable orchard’ in its widest sense – environmentally, socially and economically

Forum and the NACM also produced four scenarios for the same timeframe, which explore the different ways that various external trends might play out in the future, and the challenges this could pose to the industry as it strives to achieve its vision.  These include a growing population (whose need for housing could see orchards pushed down the priority list for land use), water scarcity and climate change. Somerset, one of the UK’s key cider making regions, is likely to suffer from lower rainfall in the future, according to projections from the UK Climate Impacts Programme.  Changes in the way that society views alcohol, as well as changes in regulation, are also likely to affect business. 

The NACM identified the risks and opportunities inherent in each of these possible future worlds, and explored how best to mitigate the risks and seize the opportunity to become more profitable and sustainable. Marketing based on the provenance of cider – whether this focuses more on local, regional or national affiliations - and developing low-alcohol alternatives were opportunities that came up repeatedly.

The NACM plans to carry out regular formal reviews of this work every two years to ensure that the scenarios remain valid, and to check that the industry is making progress towards its long-term vision. 

For a copy of the Cider Futures report please contact the NACM via Nick Bradstock