Look ahead to 2030. Will our choices have created a slower-paced world where quality of life is valued above growth, a technocratic future where vast solar desalination plants irrigate the Sahara, or a protectionist nightmare where corporate armies wage war over Arctic oil and gas?
These details are drawn from scenarios in a new report that shows how climate change will have a profound impact on every aspect of our life, and explains how business can help set us on course for the best available future by showing leadership and harnessing technology.
Climate Futures, released today by sustainable development organisation Forum for the Future, in collaboration with researchers from HP, analyses the social, political, economic and psychological consequences of climate change and describes how different global responses to the problem can lead to five very different worlds.
Based on a review of current science and consultations with more than 60 climate change experts from academia, politics, business, NGOs and the media, the report offers advice and insights for business. It is designed to be a practical toolkit that organisations can use for strategic planning and product innovation.
“What we do now could determine the fate of billions of people. These could be the most important years in history,” says Peter Madden, Chief Executive of the Forum.
“Businesses should not think about having a ‘climate change strategy’ but a strategy that will work in a complex and uncertain world dominated by climate change – a strategy for the ‘climate change years.’”
“HP takes the issue of climate change very seriously, because scientists and economists show that it will have profound impacts on society and the economy,” says Pierre Delforge, Manager, Energy and Climate Strategy, HP.
“The Climate Futures scenario work is a key tool to help visualise how the world, society and markets may evolve as regards customer needs and behaviours, policy regulations, cost of energy and commodities, and technology innovations.”
Chandrakant Patel, Director of HP’s Sustainable IT Ecosystem Lab, says: “We are using Climate Futures in our work with business strategists throughout the company. The research behind it contributed to our decision this year to make sustainability one of the five areas of focus for HP Labs and to launch the Sustainable IT Ecosystem Laboratory."
Five possible futures in 2030
Efficiency First – Rapid innovation in energy efficiency and novel technologies have created a low-carbon economy with little need for changes in lifestyle or business practice. Artificially-grown flesh feeds hundreds of millions, supercomputers advise governments, and eco-concrete walls protect the USA’s eastern seaboard generating power from the waves and tides.
The result is an increasingly individualistic, consumerist and fast-moving world, which relies on ever more complex systems. Some call it a golden age of technology and freedom, others a shaky house of cards at growing risk of crashing down.
Service Transformation – Carbon is one of the most expensive commodities, businesses have shifted to selling services instead of products, and good citizens share with their neighbours. No-one owns a car – it is far too expensive – and athletes have just staged the world’s first virtual Olympics, staying at home and competing in cyberspace.
NATO is ready to go to war if necessary to enforce the 2020 Beijing Climate Change Agreement, and water shortages have already forced the abandonment of Central Australia and Oklahoma. The dramatic transformation in business has been painful, with rising unemployment in the old high-carbon sectors. Booming mega-cities are only just managing to cope and fuel poverty is a huge problem.
Redefining Progress – The global depression of 2009-18 forced governments to regulate the economy tightly and encouraged citizens to put greater priority on quality of life than making money. Countries compete to score highest in the World Bank’s Wellbeing Index and the EU Working Time directive sets a limit of 27.5 hours a week.
The trend is towards economic resilience and simpler, more sustainable lives, but “free-riders” plunder resources, several big cities have set up as “havens of real capitalism” and some governments are aggressively pro-growth.
Environmental War Economy – Talks about a post-Kyoto treaty broke down and a global pact was only signed in 2017. Governments enforced tough action to make up for lost time, reshaping their economies to focus all resources on climate change.
Civil liberties have been stripped away. You need a licence to have children in some countries and if you go over your household energy quota the carbon monitor will turn off your appliances. Climate refugees from Bangladesh and the Pacific islands make up 18% of New Zealand’s population and are expected to boost Antarctica’s population to 3.5 million by 2040.
Protectionist World – The 2012 Climate Agreement collapsed amid accusations of cheating and undeclared power stations. Globalisation fractured into protectionist blocs as countries launched go-it-alone strategies and fought violent wars over scarce resources. Soldiers fighting for nations and businesses are waging war over oil, gas and gold in the thawing north-west passage.
Violent factions exploit the chaos to launch devastating bio-chemical attacks. Cyber-terrorists operating from safe havens in failed states have already bankrupted two multinationals. Action to mitigate climate change is all but abandoned.
Download a copy of the embargoed report here.
For more information and to arrange interviews, please contact:
David Mason, Head of Communications, Forum for the Future: d.mason@forumforthefuture.org or on +44 (0)20 7324 3631 and +44 (0)7799 072320
Sarah McIntyre, Corporate Media Relations Manager EMEA, HP:sarah.mcintyre@hp.com or on +44 (0) 7747 455536
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NOTES TO EDITORS
About Forum for the Future
Forum for the Future - the not-for-profit sustainable development group - works in partnership with over 130 leading organisations in business and the public sector, helping them devise more sustainable strategies and deliver these in the form of new products and services. www.forumforthefuture.org
Our futures team works with partners across the private and public sectors, delivering thought-provoking and innovative ideas using scenarios, visions and trend analysis and contributing to the development of ambitious sustainable development strategies. Recent projects include: Retail Futures 2022, looking at the future contribution of the UK retail sector to sustainable development; Tourism 2023, exploring the future of outbound tourism; and Low Carbon Living, a set of visions and product ideas for a better quality of life in a climate-changing world.
About HP
HP, the world’s largest technology company, provides printing and personal computing products and IT services, software and solutions that simplify the technology experience for consumers and businesses. HP completed its acquisition of EDS on Aug. 26, 2008. More information about HP (NYSE: HPQ) is available at www.hp.com
