Fashion's sustainable future brought to life in new Forum project

Fiona Bennie, February 24th 2010, Futures, Retail

Coco Chanel once said, “Fashion is made to become unfashionable.”
So how can an industry become sustainable when the ‘we loved it, but now we shun it’ cycle is embedded so deeply? Do we have to change everything we love about fashion to make it a sustainable, fair industry? Not necessarily.

Last night, amid the glamour and excitement of London Fashion Week, we held a drinks party with Levi Strauss & Co., to launch our joint report Fashion Futures which explores the world of 2025 and the role of the fashion industry within it. More than a hundred fashion industry folk turned up to hear about our four vivid scenarios and view the animations, which bring them to life.

Follow this link to find out what kind of worlds might see cities inundated by second-hand department stores; high-street brands competing on sustainability credentials; people partying in biodegradable, spray-on outfits; and regions where grow-your-own clothing is popular.

We created the scenarios to help companies around the globe navigate the ever-changing challenge of developing sustainable businesses. They compel us to mull over big questions we wouldn’t usually consider when thinking short-term. Like how the industry will react to shortages of cotton and other raw materials – or how people will care for their clothes in a future of water shortages and high energy prices – which raises deeper questions like whether current business models will survive in a retail market that’s very different from today.

We have deliberately avoided making Fashion Futures a read-it-then-shelve-it report. We want companies of all shapes and sizes, from all corners of the globe, to use the four scenarios. We want them to be inspired, perhaps even a little scared by some of them, but hopefully motivated to think differently about the future and excited by the idea that a sustainable fashion industry is achievable.

To this end, we’ve published some workshop materials on our website with advice on how to use the scenarios to shape strategy, push for sustainable design and innovation and generate the skills needed for a sustainable industry.

And we’ve brought the scenarios to life with four powerful two-minute animations, which show just how different they are, and how much a sustainable future depends on us taking bold action today.

Fashion Futures has already been put to practical use. Our project partner, Levi Strauss & Co. is using the scenarios internally, to inform strategy and innovation. As Michael Kobori (pictured), LS&Co’s Vice President of Social and Environmental Sustainability said at the launch party yesterday, "These scenarios are so stimulating, we will be sharing them with senior management to inform our broad strategies, with designers to spur them to create more sustainable products, and with all employees to unleash the power of our entire company to think about sustainability."

And we’ve used them to help fashion students understand how to design for the future, working with the great team at the Centre for Sustainable Fashion at the London College of Fashion. Four groups of students from the 2009-10 MA Fashion and the Environment – a diverse and enthusiastic bunch from all over the world - spent their autumn term living and breathing one of the Fashion Futures scenarios, creating new ideas and businesses that would thrive in such a world. They not only produced some great, thought-provoking concepts, which are illustrated in our report, but they also helped us shape the scenarios at one of the critical stages of development.

So this is the beginning of an exciting journey. We’re looking forward to helping our partners and others use the scenarios and we’re excited to hear how other organisations will use them in innovative ways.

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Messages from the future

James Goodman, January 25th 2010, Futures

What do new types of plastic, a recession-proof solar boom in California and resurgent UK regional accents have in common? Or high-street butchers, energy rationing and the emergence of a ‘recession generation’?

They could all be ‘weak signals’ from the future – signs of what may be to come. If you’re into sustainable development and planning for the future, then weak signals are important.

For example, a couple of years ago we noticed that the Australian Outback had been closed to protect tourists from the extreme heat. This struck us as something that could become more common in the future as the climate changes, and that could have a big impact on the tourism industry. So we built the idea into one of our Tourism 2023 scenarios which are helping the tourism industry plan for its future.

Some weak signals may be a harbinger of precisely nothing. Some may reappear years or even decades later. But others may grow progressively stronger, and even become part of a mainstream trend that plays a significant role in defining the future. They may hold implications for your organisation, your community – or even you personally.

We’ve been tracking weak signals for a couple of years, and now we’re making them public. Click here to have a look, or follow the beautifully designed ‘weak signals’ link on the right hand side of our home page.

You can learn about the obesity plateau in the USA, a 100% solar town in Uruguay, the phenomenon of bee-rustling, remote-control gardens and much more. Reading about these weak signals might just challenge some of your assumptions about what the future holds.

The blog is updated regularly so we hope you’ll find something new each time you check in. Please tell us what you think. Are we uncovering new trends? What could they mean for the prospects of a sustainable future?

By the way, you can read more about what weak signals are and how we use them, along with plenty of examples, in Hugh Knowles’s article for Green Futures.

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Mark Ellingham: Air travel must help cut CO2

, October 12th 2009, Futures, Transport, Travel and tourism

Hurrah for Tourism 2023, airing so many issues that have been engaging so many of us involved in the travel industry. Is a travel industry sustainable? Can it in some way clean up its own act, or at least clean up its own CO2 emissions? And if climate is changing apace, what on earth might be in store?

I came into the travel industry in the early 1980s, when I set up Rough Guides. Although back then I must say that I hadn’t thought of travel, at least not its independent wing, as an industry. At Rough Guides we were just writing books to inform people about the countries they visited, while most of the small, independent operators we dealt with were enthusiasts first, business folk second, and often driven by a passion to get involved with destinations and communities where they felt strong bonds.

Nor had I thought very much about the travel industry’s effect on the environment, beyond the sorry over-development of mainstream resorts. For back in the 1980s, there wasn’t much observable effect in many of the countries we covered: even in countries like Peru or India or Morocco, where tourism is today a significant part of the economy. And crucially, there was no popular perception about climate change, or about the role aviation emissions play.

When a year or so ago, I was asked to take part in the discussions out of which Tourism 2023 was shaped, the landscape was altogether different. Although I had by then left Rough Guides, to set up an environment imprint for Profile Books, I had a sense of guilt, almost a feeling of shame, about having been a part of the travel industry for so long. And I think that sense is shared, in rather perplexed fashion, by much of the industry. Certainly among the independent travel sector, the sector I know best, which is populated on the whole by thoughtful souls, who care deeply about the countries where they organise trips and tours. People and companies who for many years have been trying to ensure that their brand of tourism puts something back into local communities, by encouraging genuinely local development, supporting local infrastructure, and often putting money into aid projects in areas they know there will be real benefit.

Which is why I think Tourism 2023 is so important – and why it is so good that it has had partners like ABTA and British Airways involved. We need to make sure that the future of travel becomes positive, delivering benefits to the communities we visit. And, crucially, we need to somehow find a golden bullet to make tourism a “low carbon, low impact industry” as the report sets out as a primary aim. That is a vision we must all advance. And perhaps it is one that tourism actually can deliver, to show other sectors the way forward. Aviation, of course, is the key, as an area that is currently unsustainable in its contribution to carbon emissions, and is potentially disastrous if it grows as governments predict.

We need an industry that sets out its store: to remove every gram of CO2 that we emit. Better than that: why don’t we set out to remove twice as much CO2 as we emit? Turn tourism into an industry leader in removing emissions.

There is enough money in the industry to make this happen, and there is evidence that the technology to do so is emerging. Klaus Lackner, at Columbia University, has developed a working prototype of a carbon scrubber that can remove CO2 from the atmosphere, anywhere in the world.  If his technology were to go into production right now, Lackner estimates that it would cost around $200 to remove each ton of CO2. Some travellers would be happy to pay that cost today. But with mass production, Lackner estimates a CO2 removal cost dropping to around $35 a ton. That would add a very manageable extra cost to flights: $50 on a return flight from London to New York, $10 for London to Madrid.

We need to apply the pressure to make that happen – urgently.

Mark Ellingham co-founded Rough Guides and currently runs a green and ethical publishing list for Profile Books. He is a member of the Tourism 2023 Steering Committee.

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Travel giants commit to sustainable tourism

Stephanie Draper, October 8th 2009, Futures, Travel and tourism

Today some of Britain’s biggest travel companies made a big commitment - to work together to create a strong and profitable future, which benefits tourism destinations and enhances the environment. 

The launch of Tourism 2023 is a proud moment for Forum for the Future - the culmination of 18 months of helping tour operators, airlines, cruise companies and travel agents understand how they can be fit for the future – and a sustainable one at that.

It’s been a fascinating process, taking an idea born in a noodle bar in Soho to a launch to nearly 1000 delegates at this year’s ABTA Travel Convention in Barcelona.  Its involved research, workshops, creativity and collaboration. But most importantly it’s been an exercise in recognising that the future is going to be different and that taking a sustainable approach will help industries like tourism prepare for that difference. It has been one of those really inspirational projects for me.  We’ve been working with committed partners who are really engaged in understanding and preparing for their future.  They have given their collective time, effort and intellect to working through the big issues that will shape their industry.

With the help of more than 100 industry experts, we have worked through those issues to produce a set of four vivid scenarios of plausible but very different futures for the industry and a vision of a sustainable tourism industry in 2023. The scenarios explore key questions, like how climate change and related regulation will affect mainstream tourism; the extent to which technology will deliver solutions; and whether people will change their travelling habits because of rising costs or disappointing holidays to degraded places.

Our partners have now signed up to the Tourism 2023 Vision, committing themselves, individually and as a group, to creating a sustainable industry by 2023.

It states, for example that the UK industry will deliver “measurable socio-economic benefits” to destinations and work with local governments to make sure tourism development is sustainable: “That way, our operations are welcomed by host communities and our business is sustained for the long term.” 

It also pledges to use more renewable energy, conserve water, minimise waste and protect vulnerable ecosystems: “It makes commercial sense for us to commit to ambitious efficiency savings, to prepare for environmental shocks and to add to the natural environment that we all depend on, not detract from it.”

It’s not all been plain sailing, but over the years I have learnt that that is the nature of creating change. And there is still a lot to be done – next up is delivering hard performance improvements. 

So well done ABTA (Association of British Travel Agents), Advantage Travel Centres, British Airways, Carnival UK, The Co-operative Travel, Sunvil, The Travel Foundation, Thomas Cook and TUI Travel on committing to be sustainable in less than 15 years time – this is really good news for the whole industry.  I look forward to more inspiration in the coming months and years, as others join our pioneers and we see a reshaped, sustainable and more prosperous industry emerge.

For further information, to download the report and view the scenarios click here.

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Video shows way to low-carbon lifestyle

David Mason, September 22nd 2009, Futures, Public Sector

Health services make up a huge part of every developed country’s economy with a massive carbon footprint, so when you identify a way to cut emissions, save money and improve public health at the same time it’s of global interest.

So we’re delighted that the UK Foreign Office has posted a news video about Fit for the Future, our new report, which looks at a range of scenarios for future health services and gives guidance on how to create a more efficient, low-carbon system which delivers better public health.

The report focuses on the UK National Health Service, but we believe it holds lessons for every health service provider. It was jointly produced by Forum for the Future and the NHS Sustainable Development Unit, and will be sent to every NHS organisation.

In the video, filmed at the launch of the report, Neil McKay, the NHS Chief Executive with lead responsibility for sustainable development and Jonathon Porritt, founder director of the Forum, discuss the urgency of action and what the NHS needs to do to deliver low-carbon healthcare.

Health spending accounts for 16% of the US economy and 8.4% in the UK, according to an OECD survey. Across developed countries the average is 8.9% of GDP – and activities on that scale generate a massive carbon footprint.

The NHS is responsible for 18 million tonnes of CO2 each year which comes from various activities: energy used to power its hospitals; making and delivering medicines, equipment and other goods it uses; and staff, patient and visitor travel.

The World Health Organisation recently called for the health sector to take the lead in cutting emissions. "By reducing its climate footprint and moving toward carbon neutrality, the health sector can demonstrate the path forward in this age of global warming, thereby playing a leadership role in advocating for a healthy and sustainable future," said Maria Neira, Director of WHO's Department of Public Health and Environment.

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The future is flat

James Goodman, September 18th 2009, Futures, Innovation

What do crowd-sourcing, user-generated content and the microfinance revolution all have in common?

They’re all features of a trend that is moving power out beyond the control of centralised organisations, and into the hands of individuals. 

This trend is nothing new – it’s as old as the internet  - but it is becoming more and more important every day, eroding hierarchies and leading to flatter structures in business and the economy.

I was reminded of the trend recently when I  joined the judging panel at a ‘hackathon ’ - a mammoth non-stop software programming competition to see who can come up with the best solution to a particular challenge. This one was the ‘ecomo’ (conflating ‘ecology’ and ‘mobility’), in which teams of enthusiasts worked through the night to come up with new, sustainable mobile applications.

The Ecomo hackathon was run by Vodafone. It’s a type of ‘open innovation’. The term – I’m told by Chris Sherwin, our in-house innovation guru – was coined by the US technologist Henry Chesbrough about six years ago. Up and coming creatives have a chance of fame and fortune and at the very least get to meet like-minded people. The hosts build credibility with an important set of stakeholders, and could get first dabs on the next big thing.

It’s a growing trend. IBM recently held an ‘innovation jam’ with 2000 students globally as part of their smarter planet programme. Electrolux have their Design Lab, connecting with students to design the products of the future. And Unilever was a sponsor of RSA’s Design Directions, in which design students came up with products using some of our own future scenarios. Companies are even sponsoring user-generated advertising.

The winner of the hackathon, from a team called The Wizards of the Digital Frontier, was a canny spin on the freecycle phenomenon – itself another manifestation of the flattening trend. Freecyle websites match up people who want something with people who have that something to give away for free. There are many different, but similar, services, most voluntary and most operating at a local scale.

It’s a simple idea that helps people save money and reduce waste, but it’s yet to reach the scale of an eBay or Facebook. Part of the problem is the need to sign up to multiple networks and continually check them to see if they have something you want. It’s time consuming and, because most operate on a ‘first come first served’ basis, it’s very easy to miss out.

The Wizards’ idea was to aggregate the data from all of the freecycle-type websites, so that instead of signing up to every service, you just go to one website, plug in, say, ‘sofa’ and your postcode and if there’s a decent sofa to be had, it’s yours. Better, if there’s nothing available when you check, it will text or email you when something suitable does come up.

The idea won because it identified a simple problem with an existing service and came up with an elegant solution.  It could help the freecycle movement go from niche to mass-market, and have a real impact on sustainability. There’s no guarantee that Vodafone will take the idea any further. But I’m sure we’ll see its like on the web pretty soon. 

Who knows how far could the open innovation trend will go? We could very soon see it replacing more traditional closed-door corporate R&D completely. With an optimist’s view of the future, this could lead to more sustainable innovation that fits better with meeting people’s needs, rather than creating new wants. Products and services designed by the people, for the people…? A new form of democratic consumerism…?

By the way, Forum set up something similar to this back in the heady days of the dotcom boom, with the thinktank Demos (Vitamin-e anyone?). Perhaps it’s time to revive it.

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Creating health, 2025-style

Jemima Jewell, September 9th 2009, Futures

“I saw the doctor today, and he prescribed me some loft insulation…”

It’s 2025 and GPs are as likely to prescribe exercise, healthy eating vouchers and home improvement regimes as curative treatments. Green Gyms are all the rage, everyone has an electronic health passport and citizen scientists take a key role in disseminating public health information to their communities.

These are all aspects of our vision of what the health system could look like in 2025, in a world which focuses first and foremost on the social determinants of health – such as food, housing, physical activity, education and access to the natural environment – as key to ensuring a healthy society. 

Forum for the Future created this vision for England’s health system in 2025 as a contribution to the Strategic Review of Health Inequalities in England Post 2010 (The Marmot Review), commissioned by the UK government. Currently – in England and elsewhere – mortality and morbidity and mental health rates follow a social gradient. The higher up the social hierarchy an individual is (in essence, the richer they are), the lower their risk of ill health and premature death, and vice versa.

This injustice is an avoidable one. The aim of the Review is to propose an evidence-based strategy for reducing current health inequalities, by focusing on the social determinants of health. 

This focus makes sense. The World Health Organization states that ‘misdirected care’ whereby ‘resource allocation clusters around curative services at a great cost, [neglects] the potential of primary prevention and health promotion to prevent up to 70% of the disease burden’. By taking a holistic perspective, the money available can be used for early interventions, to tackle the inequalities that lead to ill health at their root.

Forum’s vision describes how, in 2025, shorter working hours, more contact with the environment, growing localisation of production and consumption, redistribution of wealth towards the poor, and greater service accessibility are all accepted as key drivers of health and well-being, and investment is targeted accordingly. 

This implies some fairly radical changes to the health system of today, changes that reach beyond the traditional remit of the NHS. Those responsible for making these changes will need a long-term view, and a willingness to make policy decisions today whose benefits may only become apparent tomorrow.  If the Marmot Review turns out to be the first step along a road paved with tangible action, then it will have done a good job. 

Download the report to read the full vision, including four stories of fictional characters living and working in 2025.

Click here for more information about the Marmot Review. The Review is due to report to the Secretary of State by the end of 2009 and the final report will be published early in 2010. 

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Scanning the foothills of the future

Jemima Jewell, June 1st 2009, Futures

"A fantastic tool for people to lift their eyes from the daily doom and gloom, to the foothills of the future – where the view is breathtaking." 

That’s how our recent vision for the West Midlands region was described by Dr Simon Slater, who commissioned the project as Director of Sustainable Development at Advantage West Midlands.

But what exactly is a vision, and why are we so keen on them here at Forum for the Future?

A vision can take many shapes and forms, but essentially describes what an organisation, product or place will look like in the long-term future if it achieves its goals. Even if the exact means of getting there is as yet undetermined, a vision sets out the essential features of success in an evocative, inspiring manner.

It may seem difficult to justify planning for the next 20 years when getting through the next quarter is at the front of everyone’s mind. But setting out a future vision is a productive exercise for a number of reasons. When talking about the long-term future, people are often willing to discuss important or sensitive issues more positively, focusing more on solutions than they otherwise might. Developing a vision can give members of an organisation a common sense of purpose.

It’s not always the case, however, that visions have to be agreed. In the ‘safe space’ that is the future, hopes, fears and ambitions can be discussed more openly, and without recrimination. People’s different underlying assumptions can be brought to light and talked over. Indeed, often the most useful part of having a vision is that it acts as a tool to stimulate debate.

One caveat. A vision cannot be a concrete, immovable thing. As Peter Drucker said: ‘If there is one thing we know about the future, it’s that it will be different’. There are few certainties facing organisations today – the last 12 months has surely taught us that. It’s therefore vital that any vision includes built-in flexibility to enable resilience in the face of a potentially turbulent world. Regular ‘horizon scanning’, looking out for hints of future change, is an important step to build into any long-term planning process.

Forum’s recent vision for the West Midlands region was commissioned by the Regional Development Agency Advantage West Midlands, and explores what the region might look like in 2020 if it is successfully travelling the path to a low-carbon economy. The people, businesses and places described in the vision demonstrate that decarbonising an economy, or a region, isn’t all about cutbacks and sacrifice. Becoming a low-carbon region can and should be a positive journey that genuinely improves quality of life, and works with, rather than against, other policy goals around health, productivity and innovation.

Dr Slater, now Executive Director at Sustainability West Midlands, says: “We will be using this tool to help stimulate debate, about what is possible now, and how to get there. We will challenge our leaders to look at this vision, improve on it, and ultimately use it to help make the birthplace of the industrial revolution a better place for its five million plus residents, forging a new identity based on our low-carbon industrial success”. The ball is rolling and the West Midlands’ Sustainable Housing Action Programme has already used the vision to inform the contribution it can make to reducing carbon emissions by retrofitting housing. 

This is exactly what visions are for. If a vision lives and breathes, becomes a focal point for discussion, and is used to influence short-term decisions on investments, strategies and partnerships, then it can be an invaluable tool to help drive the transition to the sort of life we want – and need – in the future, making that ‘breathtaking’ view a reality.

Download the West Midlands vision here – and join the debate.

To find out more about Forum’s visioning work, please contact Jemima Jewell.

Image: Christopher Elwell, Athena's Pix

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Predictions for 2009, anyone?

Richard Hardyment, December 17th 2008, Futures

It’s a brave person who’s prepared to make predictions for 2009 after the year we’ve just had. The seismic shifts over the last 12 months should be looked at afresh before any crystal ball gazing. So it’s worth asking, did anyone actually get it right?

In the last year, we’ve seen oil prices at a record $150 a barrel; food riots from Mexico to West Africa; the election of the first black President of the US; and a global economic recession with the nationalisation of some of the world’s leading financial institutions.

Could anyone have predicted all that? Clearly not, but some certainly made a good effort. Scenarios are not meant to be predictions, but images of possible, plausible futures that draw on emerging trends. Three are worth revisiting.

The UK Government’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures: Scenarios – Towards 2055 had a scenario called “Tribal trading”.  In this, a “sharp energy shock” combined with intense competition for resources like food creates a global economic slump. This scenario even contains an imaginary timeline with an event for 2026 reading: “UK banking system collapses”.

The Ministry of Defence’s DCDC Global Strategic Trends 2007-2036, published in December 2006, examined a series of risks, including this one: “US Economic Crisis. The US position as the world’s most indebted nation makes it vulnerable to stock market collapse, currency runs and economic crisis, as well as global currency manipulation. The most likely cause of crisis would be energy market instability or volatility leading to a loss of market confidence. Also, failure to continue to support or service its debt in these circumstances would put US creditors and commodity suppliers at risk, possibly causing a global economic downturn”.

Forum for the Future’s Retail Futures, published in September 2007, explored one scenario called “from me to you”. High levels of personal debt and a faltering UK housing market create a severe economic downturn. The impacts we identified for the retail sector include some ideas which have now become “fashionable”: from a newfound interest in repair and second-hand shops to peer-to-peer finance taking off.

With hindsight, you could be forgiven for thinking these seem obvious. But it’s easy to be trapped in the present. And even the futurists were cautious - these were scenarios for 15 to 50 years ahead, not 12 months. The truth is that many of the ideas seemed positively loopy at the time to some people, and it’s only looking back that they make sense.

So how can we frame our minds to appreciate uncertainty before it happens?

Firstly, prepare for radical disruption and stretch your thinking. When the US Government’s own strategic scenarios forecast massive water shortages, agricultural devastation and violent conflict from climate change within the near future, it’s evidently more and more difficult to imagine radical but realistic change. If the abnormal appears normal, it’s essential to stay ahead of the game and consider truly extraordinary changes.

Secondly, don’t make predictions. They’ll be wrong. Instead, plan and prepare for a range of possible futures. Develop resilience by considering the risks and opportunities of each outcome.

Finally, and most importantly, keep an open mind. The most forward-thinking organisations actively seek out an array of ideas, opinions and those little “weak signals” that could turn into something bigger. Speak to people who completely disagree with your version of the future. And don’t dismiss seemingly wacky but fundamentally plausible ideas.

In January 1980, Time magazine lamented the poor quality futures work of the preceding decade: “Forecasting about the 1970s turned out to be a pathetic flop. Virulent inflation and an epochal energy crisis are only two of the most ominous realities that eluded the visions of virtually every forecaster”.

The author went on to slam the futurists’ ideas for the 1970s: “How would life in the U.S. be if a mere sampling of the 1969 prognostications had been accurate? The economy would be stable, steadily growing, with perhaps a bit of inflation. A superboom in housing would have occurred: a second home would be as ordinary as a second car. …People would be shopping by two-way cable television. Teaching machines would be widely used. Office work would be mostly automated”.

The futurists had spotted many of the emerging trends, but perhaps not the timelines. A “housing boom” (and collapse) did come to pass and “shopping by two-way cable” (or down a telephone wire) is still booming this Christmas despite the recession.

Today, we can at least point to some examples of open-minded thinking that considered our current crisis. No-one can ever get it entirely right, but we can at least try. Prepare for radical change. Consider a range of futures. And when someone asks you for predictions for the year ahead, be brave and keep an open mind.

_{Image: Isobel T}

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Nice but nasty: ‘sustainability’ in 2018?

Joy Green, December 5th 2008, Business, Futures

The NICE years seemed good while they lasted, but as we wake up with a hangover to the nasty bill for our long years of growth, it's pretty clear to everyone that business as usual is not an answer and it's time to prepare for radical change.

As banks and high street brands teeter and collapse it's evident that the years of prosperity are over - what Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, dubbed the NICE era of non-inflationary constant expansion. We now have to deal with the nasty consequences - the current economic crisis, climate change, looming energy and resource “crunches”, increasing social inequality and tightening environmental limits. The decisions we take now will be critical and could lead to very different outcomes.

With this in mind, we got together with Capgemini to create four possible, plausible scenarios for the world in ten years time, with particular reference to business and sustainability. We launched the report on Tuesday at our partner event and our guest speaker, Andrew Simms, Policy Director of the New Economics Foundation, welcomed it with a quote from Winston Churchill which serves as a wake-up call for all of us.

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”

Our scenarios are not predictions, but are a useful tool for thinking systemically and exploring several key uncertainties and how they might affect each other, such as: ‘How will China develop?”; “How will markets be regulated?”; “Will there be a globally co-ordinated response to environmental overshoot?”; “What sort of networked world will emerge?” They are very different from each other, and from the world today.

Scenario A – The global interest – this is a ‘best case’ scenario, where an effective globalised response to global challenges prompts increased resource productivity, closed loop production processes and low-carbon growth. In this scenario, successful companies have embedded sustainability management throughout their organisations, and separate CSR departments are a thing of the past.

Scenario B – The national interest – this is a world that current ‘business as usual’ practices could sleepwalk into – countries compete in a zero-sum game for a shrinking pool of resources and there is a retreat to nationalism and protectionism. There are no effective global frameworks for dealing with global challenges. ‘Sustainability’ has been distorted as a concept in many countries to mean supporting the national interest.

Scenario C – Patched up globalisation – In this scenario we considered what could happen if, counter to received wisdom, China stalls and a low-carbon ‘leap-frog’ mode of development gains currency among other emerging nations. Sustainability for global companies in this scenario focuses on helping to deliver local development needs.

Scenario D – Me and mine, online – This is a highly networked world where ‘old’ organisational structures like the nation-state and traditional multinational companies have been undermined by the pace of change. Successful companies are more like hubs, coordinating often temporary and short-lived supplier relationships to deliver customised products. Trust and transparency are key, and anyone with the ability to mobilise a groundswell of opinion can exert a powerful influence.

So what did we learn from these scenarios? Several insights emerged for businesses, NGOs, governments and regulators, which we have collected in our report Acting now for a positive 2018, preparing for radical change, together with an analysis of the past ten years and a much more detailed description of the scenarios.

Overall, the main message is that we, collectively, have to act now if we want a positive outcome. Sleepwalking takes us to Scenario B – a world that is in no-one’s best interest.

If you are a global business, you are best served by an outcome closer to Scenario A – but you have to take the first steps towards it now. Waiting for governments to regulate for all risks will be too late and too costly. Businesses also need to prepare for radical change – implicit in the wide range of possible scenarios - by creating resilient strategies that can cope with a wide range of outcomes. One of the best ways of doing this is to embed sustainability into the main functions of decision-making, innovation and operational delivery.

However, governments and regulators also have a critical role in creating regulation to reduce the risk of catastrophic collapse and create the conditions in which solutions can arise.

Download the report here: Acting now for a positive 2018, preparing for radical change

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